Theresa May seems to come out of the mists of Brexit and see a happy ending on the horizon just as she was a step away from the precipice, two weeks after Brexit is set for March 29th.
The exit from the EU will be postponed to 30th June if the agreement concluded between the premier and the EU will be approved by Wednesday 20th March. Or there will be a long extension. The motion presented by the government is not only not changed (rejected all the amendments) but passes with a large majority of 210 votes (despite the freedom of vote) and various signals suggest that the strategy of May could work. Support my Brexit agreement by next Wednesday, vote for it for the third time (after two resounding failures) but vote in favour and you will not risk a long postponement of Brexit (at least a year), as offered by the European Union in the last hours, with the risk that London should participate in the European elections on May 26th.
This is still the hope of the premier, that this time could also make it, before the European Council of March 21st, during which it should unleash the unanimous approval of the 27 EU member states, necessary to have an extension. Because if this is not the case, we risk a long delay, that is no Brexit.
The third stage of the parliamentary marathon that began on Tuesday with the rejection of the agreement with the EU, continued on Wednesday with the Parliament that rejects the exit without an agreement, yesterday put some firm points on some issues. The deputies rejected with a large majority the hypothesis of a second referendum (344 against and just 85 in favour) after the Labour abstained claiming it was not the right time and revealing once and for all its own line. A vote is not what the Labour really wants (18 voted against) and the option seems set aside for a while. Not even the other amendments pass, but the executive exceeds by a whisker (by two votes) the risk that Parliament takes control of Brexit to negotiate with the EU and to do so without an expiration date.
Yet precisely this narrow victory of the government in the Chamber could convince the Brexit hawks, the deputies of the ERG of Jacob Rees-Mogg, that the time has come to support the agreement. Even Dup, the Northern Irish Unionist party, which so far has said no to the agreement, having failed its decisive votes, has reopened the dialogue, arguing that with some clearer guarantees from the general prosecutor Geoffrey Cox on the possibility of abandoning a international treaty, their resistances could fall.
As the Brexit dossier has accustomed us now, nothing is still certain. If it is true that the debate has by now turned to a postponement – short or long – it is also true that May does not have certainty of winning the third vote in the House on the agreement (on Tuesday she missed 149 votes) and the political climate is still very tense. The risk of a farewell that goes away, however, could convince the hawks. And Wednesday 20th will be only 9 days to Brexit